Domestic oil prices may even fall for 12 consecutive days

In the second half of 2014, the international oil market began to experience “Black Monday” once again and once fell below the minimum level of 50 US dollars per barrel to its lowest level in five and a half years. Even falling "is also gradually approaching. The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring organizations that the first price adjustment window for refined oil products will start as scheduled on January 12, 2015, welcoming the longest “twelve consecutive losses” in history, and is expected to drop by 300 yuan per ton.

At the end of January 5, 2015, the price of crude oil in the United States New York fell below the 50 dollar mark and eventually closed at 50.04 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 5%, the lowest closing price since April 28, 2009. As the global benchmark, the Intercontinental Exchange London Brent crude oil also plunged 5.9% to close at 53.11 US dollars per barrel, the lowest closing price since May 1, 2009.

Driven by this, the rate of change of crude oil referenced by the domestic oil price adjustment is also negatively affected. January 6th was the 6th working day of the 45th valuation period after the implementation of the new mechanism. Zhongyu crude oil was valued at US$55.364 per barrel, which was US$3.736 lower than the benchmark, and the crude oil change rate was -6.32%. The Zhuo Chuang information monitoring data is -5.85%.

“It is expected that the international oil price will remain at a low level during the first half of 2015. In the short term, some economic data will be released in the United States, China, and the Eurozone. Some of the data may provide some support for the oil market, but they are bad news. Under the dominance, the international oil price may continue to fluctuate downwards.” Yu Xin, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes that with the current crude oil spot price level and future estimates, the domestic oil price will fall for the first time in 2015 or will start as scheduled on January 12th at 24:00. , The reduction rate is 290 yuan per ton. Of course, it does not rule out that the National Development and Reform Commission will consider the factors related to refinery refinery profits and oil upgrades, and then intervene again in the current round of price adjustment.

Analysts also said that on the 12th, the domestic refined oil market will usher in the first drop of the New Year, and it is also the 12th consecutive reduction since the implementation of the new mechanism. If crude oil maintains its current price level, the drop in domestic refined oil prices will exceed 300 yuan per ton next Monday.

For nearly 60% of China's resource-dependent imports, the continuous decline in international oil prices has reduced the cost of domestic oil imports, providing opportunities for the addition of strategic oil reserves. The biggest advantage of domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel to end consumers is to save money, but as an upstream production company, it is mixed. “On the one hand, the international oil price goes down to reduce production costs, and on the other hand, there is a certain amount of imported raw materials. Regional and time differences, so the continuous decline in oil prices continue to squeeze refining profits, losses have emerged again and again; for intermediate traders is also bearish more than good, domestic gasoline and diesel prices continued to reduce the prudence of operators, narrowing the arbitrage space, operations The enthusiasm has been greatly reduced, and some small units have even been suspended to focus on the market outlook. Other oil and related products also face similar problems.” Mulberry told reporters.

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